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HB 903 

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A FURTHER NOTE ON WAR AND POPULATION 



RAYMOND PEARL 



IReprinted from Science, N. S., Vol. LIIL, No. 1862, Pages 120-121, February 4, WSl"] 



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IReprinted from Science, N. S., Vol. LIIL, No. 1362, Pages 120-121, February 4,1921] 



A FURTHER NOTE ON WAR AND POPULATION i 



I In a note publislied last summer^ I drew at- 
tention to the course of the ratio 



in the principal belligerent countries of Eu- 
rope between 1913 and 1918. All of the curves 
presented, with the single exception of that for 
Prussia, ended on a high point in 1918. The 
question was raised as to what would be their 
course after that year, and it was shown that 
England and Wales gave a value of 73 per cent, 
for 1919 against 92 per cent, for the high point 
in 1918. The first three quarters of the year 
1920 give for England and Wales a value of 
46.8 per cent. This is 10 points lower than the 
figure for 1913 ! For every death England had 
more than two births. 

The Journal Officiel has recently published 
the 1919 figures for France (77 non-invaded 
departments only) to the following effect: 

= 154 per cent. 



B 413379 

This figure compares (for the same territory) 

with 198 in 1918, 179 in 1917, 193 in 1916, 169 
in 1915, 110 in 1914, and 97 in 1913. In other 
words, in the next year immediately following 
the cessation of hostilities France's death-birth 
ratio came back to less than that of 1915, the 
first whole year of the war. With an increase 
of 157 per cent, in marriages in 1919 over 1918 
there seems little risk in predicting that 1920 
will show a ratio not far from 100, which will 

1 Papers from the Department of Biometry and 
Vital Statistics, school of hygiene and public 
health, Johns Hopkins tTniveraity, No. 27. 

2 Pearl, E., Science, N. S., Vol. LI., pp. 553- 
ifi«. 1920. 



be about the normal prewar status, France 
having had for some time a nearly stationary 
population. The 1920 vital index for France 
may well prove to be considerably below 100. 
' Another, and even more striking illustra- 
tion of the exceedingly transitory effect of war 
upon the rate of population growth, is seen in 
the figures for the City of Vienna. Probably 
no large city suffered so severely from the war 
as did this capital. Tet observe what has 
hapi)ened, as set forth in Table I. To this 
table I have added, for the sake of rounding 
out the data of this and the former paper, the 
death-birth ratios of the United States Kegis- 
tration Area for as many years as they are 
available, and for England and Wales, 1912 to 
1920 (first three quarters of latter year). 





TABLE I 




Percentage of Deaths to Births 






U. S. Birth 




Year 


City at Vieima 


Registration 
Area 


and Walea 


1912 


80 





56 


1913 


85 


— 


57 


1914 


86 


— 


59 


1915 


113 


56 


69 


1916 


143 


59 


65 


1917 


195 


57 


75 


1918 


229 


73 


92 


1919 


162 


58 


73 


1920 


— 


— 


473 



These figures are shown graphically in Fig- 
ure 1. 

We note that : 

1. The high point of the Vienna curve in 
1918, 229 per cent., is higher than that for 
France (198 per cent.), and probably higher 
than for any other equally large aggregate of 
population in the world. 

aPirst three quarters of year only. 



SCIENCE 




YEAR 
Fig. 1. Showing the change in percentage which deaths were of births in each of the years 1912 to 
1919 for Vienna ( ) ; 1915 to 1919 for the United States ( ) ; and 1912 to 1920 for Eng- 
land and Wales ( ) . 



2. The drop in 1919 is shaxp in its angle and 
marked in its amount, the percentage coming 
down nearly to the 1916 figure — and this in 
spite of the very distressing conditions which 
prevailed in Vienna throughout 1919. It is 
not at all improbable, indeed rather it is prob- 
able that Vienna will in 1920 show a ratio 
ujider 100 — that is, more births than deaths. 
If this happens she will have begun absolute 
natural increase again in only the second year 
after the cessation of hostilities, during the 
last year of which she had 2i persons die for 
every one bom. 

3. The war produced no effect upon the 
death-birth ratio in this country, as would 
have been expected. The influenza epidemic in 
1918 raised the curve a little, but it promptly 
dropped back to normal in 1919. 

4. In England and Wales the provisional fig- 



ure indicates that 1920 will show a lower vital 
index than that country has had for many 
years. 

Altogether, these examples, which include 
the effects of the most destructive war known 
to modem man, and the most devastating epi- 
demic since the Middle Ages, furnish a sub-, 
stantial demonstration of the fact that popula- 
tion growth is a highly seK-r^ulated biolog- 
ical phenomenon. Those persons who see in 
war and pestilence any absolute solution of the 
world problem of population, as postulated by 
Malthus, are optimists indeed. As a matter of 
fact, all history definitely tells us, and recent 
history fairly shouts in its emphasis, that such 
events make the merest ephemeral flicker in 
the steady onward march of population growth. 

Raymond Pearl 



•i-athor 



LIBRARY OF CONGRESS 



013 734 524 9 9 



